Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-13 11.441880 12.825168 14.408467 16.378042 18.796214 21.714966 25.579902
2024-10-20 9.376655 10.959022 12.897998 15.509392 19.036539 23.803538 31.069104
2024-10-27 8.122754 9.746099 11.824262 14.776292 19.041856 25.320037 36.059072
2024-11-03 8.095723 10.031018 12.647608 16.631058 22.943464 33.467882 55.146404
2024-11-10 7.758177 9.834296 12.754213 17.436977 25.420151 40.221011 76.636143
2024-11-17 7.067318 9.063373 11.928497 16.652036 25.034769 41.562218 87.083750
2024-11-24 6.652618 8.642660 11.565263 16.538226 25.790443 45.461890 108.438993
2024-12-01 6.279425 8.246663 11.192129 16.342128 26.332607 49.110166 134.104675
2024-12-08 5.995091 7.957473 10.952427 16.334451 27.236516 54.044691 174.341328
2024-12-15 5.786762 7.765097 10.844630 16.540404 28.630281 61.026587 245.725339
2024-12-22 5.474914 7.391088 10.406871 16.076340 28.440321 63.334994 297.782942
2024-12-29 5.281409 7.188854 10.236642 16.097580 29.379392 69.848932 429.092930
2025-01-05 4.959276 6.779781 9.712057 15.419759 28.628265 70.659694 518.486714
2025-01-12 4.644376 6.366898 9.155606 14.626423 27.460474 69.496230 581.625718
2025-01-19 4.375630 6.014893 8.682280 13.955866 26.497312 68.802077 667.262382
2025-01-26 4.493892 6.293029 9.323775 15.649196 32.251360 102.756228 9594.881423
2025-02-02 4.455311 6.308820 9.497605 16.381994 35.661798 132.863184 NaN
2025-02-09 4.229940 5.998604 9.050039 15.668292 34.370762 131.086284 NaN
2025-02-16 4.098120 5.840897 8.876581 15.564672 35.061571 145.462085 NaN
2025-02-23 3.966341 5.676848 8.680362 15.386048 35.465896 158.961504 NaN
2025-03-02 3.863835 5.558162 8.562315 15.379052 36.484131 181.243948 NaN
2025-03-09 3.789946 5.485224 8.526685 15.566655 38.295242 219.113242 NaN
2025-03-16 3.653172 5.296647 8.255312 15.143772 37.663399 225.464044 NaN